Author Archives: Michael Korican

About Michael Korican

A long-time media artist, Michael’s filmmaking stretches back to 1978. Michael graduated from York University film school with Special Honours, winning the Famous Players Scholarship in his final year. The Rolling Stone Book of Rock Video called Michael's first feature 'Recorded: Live!' "the first film about rock video". Michael served on the board of L.I.F.T. when he lived in Toronto during the eighties and managed the Bloor Cinema for Tom and Jerry. He has been prolific over his past eight years in Victoria, having made over thirty-five shorts, won numerous awards, produced two works for BravoFACT! and received development funding for 'Begbie’s Ghost' through the CIFVF and BC Film.

How to Choose the Best Picture Oscar

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The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences held the 80th Oscars last Sunday.

The Creature from the Black Lagoon

Guillermo del Toro‘s “The Shape of Water” won Best Picture.

Going in, I thought “Dunkirk” and “Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri” were the front runners, with “Lady Bird” a close third. “Get Out”?

But can the winner be predicted?

Youyou Zhou, writing on Quartzy, offered The Ultimate Statistical Model for Predicting the 2018 Academy Awards Best Picture.

She rated the nine nominations on four scales:

  1. Buzz and fanfare
  2. Prior awards
  3. Money talks
  4. Critic reviews

She then asked the reader to weigh each category to produce a prediction.

Of course, we now know the actual winner, so we can reverse engineer this to gain some insight into what’s important in winning Best Picture.

I played around with the sliders and came up with:

  1. Buzz and fanfare = 15%
  2. Prior awards = 70%
  3. Money talks = 10%
  4. Critic reviews = 22%

I know it adds up to 117% — hey, I didn’t build this.

The biggest predictor was Prior Awards. In fact, “The Shape of Water” wins with all the categories at 25% and Prior Awards at 100%.

This graphic illustrates the favourites on each of the four scales.

My take: This just begs the question, how do you predict the other awards shows?

Money for Movies

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While the independent film community in Canada waits with bated breath for Telefilm to release the latest guidelines for their excellent Talent to Watch program, the NFB reminds us there are other sources of money to help you make your movie.

Eleven, to be exact:

  1. The Bell Fund
  2. Canada Council for the Arts
  3. The Canada Media Fund
  4. The Canada Media Fund English POV Program
  5. The Hot Docs CrossCurrents Doc Fund
  6. The Hot Docs Ted Rogers Fund
  7. The Quebecor Fund
  8. The Rogers Documentary Fund
  9. The Rogers Cable Network Fund
  10. The Telus Fund
  11. Crowd-funding sites such as Kickstarter or Indiegogo

Conspicuously missing from the list is BravoFACT, which the CRTC allowed Bell Media to kill last year.

My take: thank you, NFB, for helping us not fixate on Telefilm. Nevertheless, the Talent to Watch program remains the holder of the best odds on $125K — something like 1 in 6 by my math: Telefilm has announced they’ll fund 50 projects this year and each of approximately 30 recommending partners can forward two feature and one web project for consideration — that’s 50 / (33 * 3) = 50 / 99 = 50% odds at Telefilm. I suspect that each partner will not receive more than nine projects — that’s 3 / 9 = 33% odds at your local media centre. Combining the two, we get 0.5 x 0.33 = 0.165 = 16.5% which is approximately one in six. Roll the die! Your chances of funding your first feature will never be better.

Isaac Asimov hitches a ride on Elon Musk’s Roadster to Mars

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Elon Musk, Earth’s real life Tony Stark (see this infographic and this tidbit for proof,) just sent his Tesla Roadster into space aboard SpaceX‘s Falcon Heavy rocket on February 6, 2018.

See four hours of live footage of Starman and the Tesla Roadster in space.

See where Starman and Elon Musk’s Roadster are right now.

But wait, there’s more!

In addition to the “Don’t Panic!” message on the dashboard, there’s a second, hidden, message tucked away in the Roadster.

Nova Spivack of the Arch Mission Foundation, whose mission is to preserve and disseminate humanity’s knowledge across time and space for the benefit of future generations, explains:

“We are very happy to announce that our first Arch [data crystals that last billions of years] library, containing the Isaac Asimov Foundation Trilogy, was carried as payload on today’s SpaceX Falcon Heavy launch, enroute to permanent orbit around the Sun. We are eternally grateful to Elon Musk and his incredible team for advocating the Arch Mission Foundation and giving us our first ride into space.”

This is not the first time messages have been sent into space physically.

That honour goes to the Pioneer Plaques of 1972 and ’73 and the Voyager Golden Records of 1977.

Interestingly, interstellar radio messages predate that by a decade.

My take: did you know Marvel Comic’s Howard Stark, Ironman’s father, was modelled on Howard Hughes? Talk about coming full circle.

Binge-watching binge-eating in Korea

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In honour of the Olympics in PyeongChang, let’s delve into the subculture of food webcasts in South Korea, otherwise known as Mukbang.

(Click on CC for English subtitles.)

Since 2009, “Broadcast Jockeys” (or BJs) have generated millions of views of up to hour-long food cooking and/or eating videos.

Banzz, featured above, has amassed over two million subscribers and almost three-quarters of a billion views in less than five years.

Yang Soo Bin takes a different tack, editing her videos down to under five minutes.

Why do Koreans watch? Are they all on diets and tune in to eat vicariously? Are they lonely, and want company while they eat too? Is it the immediacy of real people doing something real? I don’t know.

I do know that food is a cornerstone of Korean culture and is a highly-regarded social activity there.

My take: the sheer number of subscribers and views is staggering; some BJs may actually be making more money doing this than through their regular jobs. It would be worth studying how they build their audiences.

Elton John embraces VR to announce last tour

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On the heels of news of the first big VR film sale at Sundance, Elton John unleashed a VR360 retrospective short to introduce a livestream concert announcement on January 24, 2018.

(Use your A, S, D and W keys to move in space if you don’t have a headset. I found the 1440 resolution provided the best balance between detail and smooth playback.)

His upcoming 3 year, 300 date Farewell Yellow Brick Road tour will be his last; Elton (currently age 70) intends to quit touring to spend more time with his young children and husband.

Watch the full announcement with host Anderson Cooper (interview begins at 16:00 of the clip).

According to Wired, the VR360 video took two years to produce. Amazingly, it pushes the limits for motion sickness in VR.

Here’s the Making Of, Part One and Part Two.

My take: kudos to Elton John for embracing VR (and AR the previous day.) With over 700,000 views to date, the piano man shows us how to build buzz and steal the show.

Michael Korican premieres new short film

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My new short film The Dolphins premieres at the Victoria Event Centre on Thursday, February 1, 2018.

I’ve been privileged to make over 50 short films in four decades, starting with Super-8, moving into 16mm, mini-DV and now HD.

A lot of my movies have been entries into the wonderful competitions that CineVic has held over the years: Scrapshots, Reel to Reel, One Shot Wonders, Film Slam, and Film Festivus.

My latest film, however, belongs in the “self-motivated” category. These are the films I’ve made because I needed to make them. Films like Alpbach, Thankful, Awoken, Red Tape and The Dolphins. In each case, I wanted to document a moment in time or explore a creative challenge.

The creative challenge behind The Dolphins was, “Can I make a fiction film on vacation in Mexico?” Not a travelogue, but something with a theme and no crew; just me and my DSLR.

So it’s kinda ironic that it has its premiere at a film competition. Bryan Skinner is hosting the Alan Smithee Awards and The Dolphins is entered.

Bryan is making Open for Submissions, “a comedic, feature-length mockumentary about a newly appointed film festival Executive Director who must overcome sabotage and betrayal in order to save his job and keep the screens alight.” He created the Alan Smithee Awards to source films for his feature.

My take: I hope to see you there!

Kodak looks to the future and the past

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There is good news and bad news from Kodak.

Some will remember Kodak as the leading photography film company of the last millenium, toying with bankruptcy in 2012.

The good: Kodak has fully jumped into 360 VR with the Pixpro ORBIT360 4K:

“The KODAK PIXPRO Orbit360 4K VR Camera adopts a minimalist approach to an all-in-one 360 ̊ VR camera, with two fixed focus lenses housed by a futuristic camera body. Each curved lens is designed to work in tandem, to capture full 360 ̊ 4K Video and easily upload 360 ̊ videos and photos to social media platforms like Facebook and YouTube via the camera’s Smart Device App while on the go.”

The real news from CES 2018 however is that Kodak plans two new cameras for later this year. See 2:05 in this report from Digital Trends:

The bad: Kodak has stated that the price for its upcoming Super 8 camera will be in the $2,500 to $3,000 range, which is three to five times more than originally planned.

They also released some test footage:

To my eye this is soft and jittery. I much prefer the rock-steady footage from Logmar:

My take: On one hand, I’m really looking forward to Kodak’s 360 camera that can fold out into a 180 3D mode because I feel this format has the best chance to win the immersive VR stakes. On the other hand, shame on Kodak for jacking up the price of their inferior Super 8 camera.

AI reads minds, makes pictures

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As reported by Tristan Greene on The Next Web, scientists at Kyoto University in Japan have created a deep neural network that can decode brainwaves.

That’s right, AI that can read your mind.

Tristan summarizes:

“When these machines are learning to “read our minds” they’re doing it the exact same way human psychics do: by guessing. If you think of the letter “A” the computer doesn’t actually know what you’re thinking, it just knows what the brainwaves look like when you’re thinking it…. AI is able to do a lot of guessing though — so far the field’s greatest trick has been to give AI the ability to ask and answer its own questions at mind-boggling speed. The machine takes all the information it has — brainwaves in this case — and turns it into an image. It does this over and over until (without seeing the same image as the human, obviously) it can somewhat recreate that image.”

Or, as Guohua Shen, Tomoyasu Horikawa, Kei Majima and Yukiyasu Kamitani illustrate:

To my eye, some of the results look awfully reminiscent of William Turner‘s oil paintings, particularly Snow Storm.

See the full paper.

My take: Let’s be honest. This technology, as amazing as it is, is not yet ‘magical.’ (Arthur C. Clarke‘s third law is, “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.”) However, if we think about it a bit and mull over the possibilities, this might one day allow you to transcribe your thoughts, paint pictures with your mind or even become telepathic.

Google uses neural net to synthesize female voice

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Research at Google is making huge advances in text-to-speech (TTS) technology. Check this out:

From their Twitter post:

“Building on TTS models like ‘Tacotron’ and deep generative models of raw audio like ‘Wavenet’, we introduce ‘Tacotron 2’ a neural network architecture for speech synthesis directly from text.”

How do they do it? From their blog post:

“In a nutshell it works like this: We use a sequence-to-sequence model optimized for TTS to map a sequence of letters to a sequence of features that encode the audio. These features, an 80-dimensional audio spectrogram with frames computed every 12.5 milliseconds, capture not only pronunciation of words, but also various subtleties of human speech, including volume, speed and intonation. Finally these features are converted to a 24 kHz waveform using a WaveNet-like architecture.”

The results are amazing.

Want more? Here’s the full research paper.

The limitations? Some complex words, sentiment and generation in real time. “Each of these is an interesting research problem on its own,” they conclude.

Listen to more samples.

My take: I’ve used TTS functionality to generate speech for songs and for voice-over. I love it! As the quality improves to the point where it becomes indistinguishable from human voice, I will admit that I’m not quite sure what that will mean in a future where we won’t be sure if the voice we’re hearing is human or robot.

Netflix in 2018

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As we move into 2018, a quick recap on the strength of Netflix’s streaming domination:

  • Netflix subscribers around the world watched more than one billion hours per week
  • The average subscriber watched approximately 60 movies in 2017

As reported widely, Neflix intends to spend upwards of $8 billion on new content in 2018. The New York Times lists some of the new films coming this spring:

  • “The Polka King” starring Jack Black
  • “Step Sisters”
  • “A Futile and Stupid Gesture” starring Will Forte
  • “When We First Met”
  • A revival of the “Benji” franchise
  • “Roxanne Roxanne”
  • “Come Sunday” starring Chiwetel Ejiofor

Even more new TV series are coming this year.

Nevertheless, there’s backlash…

Ben Kuchera writing on Polygon complains that:

“Netflix believes that its business begins and ends in your living room, which means any movie it buys will lose its shot at a theatrical release.”

He goes on to quote Noah Baumbach talking about his Netflix experience with “The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected)“:

“To be clear, I didn’t make the movie with Netflix. I made the movie independently, as I’ve made all my movies. I wasn’t even thinking of an alternative — I was thinking this would be shown in theaters, as all my movies are. Netflix acquired it from my producer in post and they have their way that’s important to them…. But I think it’s a singular experience, seeing a movie in the theater. I think audiences should be given the opportunity to see things for the first time that way.”

Netflix is even using their model for blockbusters. The $90 million Bright got savaged by the critics but that doesn’t seem to have scared away viewers.

My take: Although not quoted above, Baumbach also went on to say, “We all end up there anyway — all movies are going to end up on these servers, and that’s great.” The reality is that theatrical releases are very expensive. And the cost per viewer, versus streaming, is astronomical. My advice: add a clause to your contract that lets you four-wall a cinema and hold exclusive screenings for your best supporters. An audience of three hundred or so viewers can’t bother Netflix too much, can it?